
USDA's preliminary September Milk Production report put US output at 18.0 billion pounds, up 2.3% from a year earlier and the largest gain since March. It is the first year-on-year increase in three years, with rising output per cow and cow numbers across major states.
Expanding US milk output is bearish for dairy prices and may keep dairy farm margins under pressure. Higher milk supply also supports feed demand from larger herds.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.