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USDA announced the January Class III benchmark at $16.04/cwt, up 32 cents from December but $1.01 below a year earlier. Futures pricing for later 2021 months was also reported, and the 2021 Class III average forecast was cut to $16.60.
Lower projected Class III and Class IV prices reflect the expanding milk supply and point to weaker dairy margins for feed buyers.
After 273 past bearish report events, MILK moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.