USDA's July report showed US milk production up 0.3% year over year to 18.3 billion pounds, the second straight monthly gain. Cold storage cheese stocks at the end of July were 1.522 billion pounds, up 5% from a year earlier.
Front-month Class III futures hovered around $20.00 per hundredweight.
Rising milk output and higher cheese stocks add supply pressure on Class III prices, though strong export demand is offsetting part of the increase. Dairy-based feed ingredient costs stay tied to this balance.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.