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USDA's outlook for 2024 projects milk output rising about 2.2 billion pounds, or roughly 1%, as higher per-cow yields offset a smaller herd. Prices for cheese, butter and other dairy products are all expected to fall.
Higher milk supply alongside lower product prices points to weaker dairy farm returns and softer Class III and IV milk prices into 2024.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.