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The USDA's December WASDE lowered its 2023 US milk production forecast by 2 million lbs to 226.9 billion and cut 2024 output to 229 billion. Class III 2024 was lowered 85 cents to $16.85 per cwt, while the 2023 all-milk price fell 10 cents to $20.60.
Lower production and cheaper 2024 Class III forecasts point to softer milk prices and reduced dairy supply, a bearish signal for milk-linked feed demand.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.