US milk production in August 2022 rose 1.6% year on year, with over half of the 24 reporting states higher. Gains came from more cows and better yields in California, Idaho and Texas.
The Class III price fell from a May peak of $25.21 to $20.10 in August.
Rising US milk output adds supply just as cheese and protein demand is soft, which points to further Class III price weakness. This bearish signal affects MILK prices and dairy feed demand.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.