
Gasoline futures spiked about 13 percent to above $2.14 a gallon after reports that Motiva's Port Arthur refinery, the largest in the US, could stay offline for up to two weeks. US crude settled at $47.23 but still posted a nearly 6 percent loss for August.
Extended closure of the largest US refinery reduces fuel output and raises transport costs, while crude demand from refiners stays weak.
After 19 past bearish logistics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.5% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -6.6% to +2.3%), and +5.3% over 20.
After 113 past bullish logistics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -2.8% to +4.2%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.