US crude oil was on track for its steepest monthly loss in over a year as Harvey knocked out about a quarter of US refining capacity, around 4.4 million barrels per day. Gasoline futures rallied to a two-year high above $2 a gallon, and the Colonial Pipeline shut its main product lines.
Refinery shutdowns cut crude demand and push crude lower, while fuel shortages lift diesel and gasoline prices, a split that affects costs for feed transport and grain drying.
After 19 past bearish logistics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.5% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -6.6% to +2.3%), and +5.3% over 20.
After 113 past bullish logistics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -2.8% to +4.2%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.