
WTI traded near $100 on September 16 after reports that Saudi Arabia was arranging ship-to-ship crude transfers off Oman to bypass a damaged Red Sea pipeline. US crude inventories rose 7.1 million barrels, well above expectations for a draw.
The alternative export route eases some supply anxiety, but the pipeline damage keeps supply tight and the risk of a rebound open. The bearish inventory build adds further pressure in the short term.
After 19 past bearish logistics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.5% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -6.6% to +2.3%), and +5.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.