Loading…
The Dow and S&P 500 fell sharply the week of 16 March 2020 as COVID-19 fears deepened, and crude oil fell further amid a price war. Soybean meal and bean oil spiked late in the week after several Argentine export locations shut down over COVID-19 concerns.
Argentine port shutdowns cut soymeal and soyoil export supply, supporting meal prices for feed buyers, while lower crude weighs on ethanol margins and corn.
andersonsgrain.comMar 20, 2020After 167 past bullish logistics events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.9%), and -1.2% over 20.
After 85 past bullish logistics events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (64% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.7%), and +3.1% over 20.
After 206 past bullish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.6%), and +1.4% over 20.
After 359 past bearish logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Argentine export location shutdowns over COVID-19 threatened the world's top soymeal export supply, spiking meal late in the week of the move.
Soybean meal and oil spiked after Argentine export locations shut down over COVID-19, tightening South American export supply.
The prior week's spike on Argentine export shutdowns built a large risk premium that left meal vulnerable to a sharp pullback once those fears eased.
Soymeal spiked after Argentine export locations shut down over COVID-19, which reflects the supply shock behind the rally, although the wrap covers the full week.
