European diesel tightens, crude weakens as French refinery outages linger

After 113 past bullish logistics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -2.8% to +4.2%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Jul 31, 2017European Diesel Jumps as Fire at Pernis Refinery Cuts Supply - Bloomberg+0.4%
• Oct 17, 2022Atlantic Basin refining margins soar on refinery outages, tight diesel supply | S&P Global-6.7%
• Feb 26, 2026Diesel EFS widest in two-months as European markets tighten+23.6%
• Feb 26, 2024US diesel exports to Europe dip on plummeting refining output+1.0%
• May 10, 2021Colonial Pipeline outage: What to watch for in diesel markets Monday - FreightWaves+1.4%

After 36 past logistics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -4.6% to +3.2%), and +1.5% over 20.

• Oct 21, 2020Why crude-tanker collapse could be long and painful - FreightWaves-4.6%
• Mar 26, 2021Ringgit falls as oil slumps due to Suez Canal blockage+4.5%
• May 27, 2020Shipping companies opt for Cape of Good Hope route more often+10.2%
• Nov 17, 2025Oil prices ease after loadings resume at Russian export hub | Reuters-2.0%
• Feb 17, 2025Kurdistan region's oil exports to resume next week, Iraqi minister says-0.4%