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A fire at Royal Dutch Shell's Pernis refinery, the largest in the region, forced most units to halt late Saturday. The company does not expect any units to restart soon, and traders scrambled for diesel supply in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub.
Losing output from Europe's biggest refinery tightens regional diesel supply, which lifts European diesel prices and can pull in imports from other regions.
After 113 past bullish logistics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -2.8% to +4.2%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.