Atlantic Basin refining margins are rising back toward record levels, driven by refinery outages and French strikes at three refineries. ARA ULSD cracks surged to $80/b on Oct.
13, and Northwest Europe cracking margins averaged $23.11/b for the week ended Oct. 14.
Refinery outages and strong European diesel cracks indicate tight product supply that supports diesel prices. High gas costs partly limit margin gains, but the overall effect is firm diesel pricing.
After 113 past bullish logistics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -2.8% to +4.2%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.