
The November WASDE, the first in two months after a prolonged US government shutdown, showed corn ending stocks lifted to 2.154 billion bushels with yield trimmed to 186.0 bpa. Wheat balance sheets loosened more than expected while soybeans tightened only modestly.
The report was softer than speculative longs had positioned for, undermining the recent rally and pointing to bearish pressure on corn and wheat, with soybeans supported only mildly while Chinese buying remains unconfirmed.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.