◂ Event Timeline

Sep 16, 2025REPORTGlobal

Corn Rallies on WASDE Yield Cut; Wheat Stocks Diverge

Chicago corn rallied following a September WASDE yield cut even though stocks rose, while US wheat stocks fell and world wheat stocks rose. Brazil raised its corn output again, and the September futures contracts for corn and wheat have since expired.

WHY IT MATTERS

Harvest pressure and a small ending-stocks cut suggest the rally may correct, while Brazil's larger crop adds to global export competition for corn.

AFFECTSCorn▼Wheat (SRW)◆

SOURCE
czapp.comAlberto CarmonaSep 16, 2025

Price reaction & history

Corn▼bearishSO FAR1d +1.3%5d -0.3%20d -2.6%

After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.

Feb 9, 2021WASDE Sees Corn Stocks Decline; Beans Rally on Tightening Supplies-5.2%
Jan 12, 2024January WASDE: Higher U.S. Corn and Soy Yield and Stocks-0.9%
Sep 30, 2021Soybeans Plunge, Wheat Rallies on USDA Stocks and Production Changes+0.3%
Dec 12, 2022U.S. corn stocks rise in December WASDE+1.6%
Apr 13, 2020USDA report: Larger U.S. corn, soy, wheat stocks-5.4%

Wheat (SRW)◆neutralSO FAR1d +0.3%5d +0.3%20d +1.5%

After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.

Jun 10, 2021Corn stocks cut in USDA WASDE report - Grainews+5.7%
Feb 11, 2025USDA Cuts World Corn, Soybean, Wheat Ending Stocks+2.0%
Nov 8, 2024USDA Surprisingly Lowers Corn and Soybean Yield and Ending Stocks in WASDE - AgWeb-1.6%
Jun 11, 2021WASDE Slashes Corn Ending Stocks | Feed & Grain+5.0%
Oct 9, 2020Rally Continues as USDA WASDE Report Reveals Tighter Stocks+1.0%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Corn CORN · GP ▸

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Wheat (SRW) WHEAT · GP ▸

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