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StoneX expects Brazil fertilizer prices to diverge in Q4 2026, with nitrogen staying firm, potash stable and phosphates open to some correction. Supply constraints, including Chinese MAP and DAP export curbs and high sulfur costs, are capping phosphate output.
Firm nitrogen and phosphate supply constraints keep input costs elevated for Brazilian growers, while potash stability limits upside. Phosphate price relief would mainly help growers buying for the second crop or 2027.
fertilizerdaily.comOct 22, 2026After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
After 29 past neutral policy events, DAP moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.3%), and +1.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
