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USDA's December 12 report raised 2018 U.S. wheat carryover to 960 million bushels on lower exports, and soybean carryover to 445 million bushels. Hard red winter carryover rose to 470 million bushels, and corn carryover was lowered on higher ethanol use.
Larger wheat and soybean carryover signals ample supplies and weighs on prices, while corn's tighter stocks offer modest support. The Canadian export competition noted by USDA reinforces pressure on U.S. wheat.
world-grain.comMatt NoltemeyerDec 13, 2017After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
