
USDA's December WASDE report cut U.S. corn ending stocks to 2.437 billion bushels from 2.487 billion, as ethanol corn use rose 50 million bushels. Soybean ending stocks rose to 445 million bushels and the report left U.S. corn and soybean production unchanged.
Lower corn stocks are mildly supportive, while higher soybean stocks signal weaker demand and pressure soybean prices. Prices moved only slightly after the release, so the report had limited impact.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.