
USDA's January report put U.S. soybean production at 4.307 billion bushels with a 52.1 bu/acre yield, both below trade expectations and last month, and ending stocks at 420 million bushels. Corn production was 15.148 billion bushels at 174.6 bu/acre, also below expectations, with ending stocks of 2.355 billion bushels.
Tighter-than-expected soybean and corn supplies support prices through the spring, raising feed costs for buyers. Lower feed and residual corn use and record ethanol grind shape the demand outlook.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.