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The February 8 USDA report cut U.S. corn ending stocks by 125 million bushels to 2.353 billion, mainly on higher exports. Soybean ending stocks rose 60 million bushels to 530 million, a larger increase than many expected, yet soybean prices barely reacted.
Traders were focused on weather in the weeks ahead.
Lower corn stocks support prices, but the soybean stock build is bearish on paper, and the muted response suggests weather will drive near-term direction for feed grains.
ocj.comBrianna SmithFeb 8, 2018After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
