
CONAB's November report projects Brazil's soybean crop at 166.14 million tonnes, a record 6.7% above the prior high. Combined with Argentina and Paraguay, South America's output could reach a record 230 million tonnes.
A record South American soybean supply expands export availability and tends to pressure soybean and meal prices lower.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.