Soybean futures fell 36 to 42 1/2 cents overnight after USDA's August Crop Production report raised the US soybean yield 0.4 bushel per acre and production to 4.531 billion bushels. USDA kept Brazil and Argentina estimates unchanged, and world carryout rose for both old and new crop.
A larger US crop and higher world carryout add bearish pressure on soybean and meal prices, which tends to lower feed ingredient costs for buyers.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 114 past neutral report events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
USDA's August report raised US soybean yield and production and world carryout, triggering a sharp overnight selloff in soybean futures and meal.
Soybean futures fell 36-42 cents overnight after USDA raised US yield and production and world carryout, a supply-driven bearish reaction.
Soybean futures fell 36-42 cents overnight after USDA raised yield and production and world carryout, a direct bearish supply shock to the complex.