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The January 1 cattle inventory report showed a slight decline in total cattle and a 1% drop in the 2019 calf crop, the first decrease in six years. Live cattle, feeder cattle and lean hog futures all fell over the week, and hog prices were lower on the afternoon report.
A smaller cattle inventory supports future cattle prices, but weak futures and hog market declines show that coronavirus worries and supply pressure are still weighing on the complex.
keyaglivestocklowdown.blogspot.comJWFJan 31, 2020After 268 past bullish report events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +1.7% over 20.
After 227 past bullish report events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.5%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 159 past bearish report events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Friday's market summary reports lean hog futures and hog prices falling on the day and week, which is direct sentiment and price pressure on the move date, though it offers little causal detail.
