
CME July lean hog futures fell by the 4.5-cent daily limit on June 24, 2021, to their lowest since late March. USDA reported the June 1 hog herd at 98% of the prior year, slightly above the 97.7% analysts expected, and weekly pork export sales fell.
A herd larger than expected and softer export sales signal more near-term pork supply, pressuring hog prices and processor margins, with limited direct impact on feed demand beyond the hog sector.
After 159 past bearish report events, HOGS moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.