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Capital Economics says the trade-weighted dollar has depreciated by almost 10% since the start of 2017 and is about 8% below its early-2017 peak. It expects the dollar to hold roughly steady over the next year or two, while depreciating against developed-market currencies such as the euro.
Rate expectations have risen but have not lifted the dollar.
A stable-to-weaker dollar keeps US commodity prices supported in global terms and helps export demand. The forecast of further euro strength could shift competitiveness for European buyers and feed trade flows.
octaafrica.netFeb 21, 2018After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
