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Capital Economics expects the US dollar to ease gradually through 2024 as the FOMC shifts toward easing and Treasury yields fall. The firm argues the greenback will still hold up better than most forecasts because of US economic outperformance and AI-driven equity strength.
A forecast of a gradually weaker dollar points to mild support for USD-priced feed commodities, though the view is an outlook rather than a new shock.
capitaleconomics.comJonas Goltermann, Jonathan PetersenDec 13, 2023After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
