
India's second advance estimates put 2017-18 food grain output at a record 277.5 million tonnes, above the prior year's 275 mt. Rice output rose above 111 mt and pulses to 23.95 mt, while oilseeds were projected to fall below 30 mt due to lower soybean and rapeseed output.
Record Indian rice and coarse cereal output reduces import needs and adds exportable supply, which is bearish for rice; the oilseed shortfall is supportive for Indian soybean and meal demand from imports.
After 87 past bearish report events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.4%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.