
USDA's November 10 report cut US 2020 soybean and corn production and carryover forecasts below pre-report trade expectations. Harvests came in smaller than expected, and prices stayed at multi-year highs, with soybeans at four-year highs.
Very low projected 2021 soybean stocks-to-use keeps soybean and corn prices firm, raising feed costs for buyers heading into 2021.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.