
USDA raised its 2021-22 US corn yield to a record 177 bushels per acre, lifting production to 15.062 billion bushels. It also cut the soybean yield by 0.3 bpa, leaving soybean production at 4.42 billion bushels, and raised ethanol use of corn.
A record corn crop is supportive for feed supply, but higher ethanol use keeps corn balances tight. The soybean yield cut is bullish for soy and soymeal prices.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.