
India's 2025-26 foodgrain output is estimated to have risen over 5%, with rice at a record above 154 million tonnes and wheat at a record 120.66 million tonnes. Cotton output was lowered to 29.02 million bales.
The estimates are the government's third advance figures.
Record Indian rice and wheat output increases export availability and weighs on world prices. The strong carryover partly cushions the expected weak monsoon's effect on the current crop year.
After 87 past bearish report events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.4%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.