
AgRural said Brazil's nationwide soybean harvest had covered 6.4% of planted area by early February, close to the five-year average of 6.5%. Estimated national yields of 48.2 bushels per acre are slightly below last year's record 49.4, though local results vary widely.
Brazil is the world's dominant soybean exporter, so steady harvest progress and near-average yields limit fears of a supply shortfall and weigh modestly on soybean and meal prices. Localized dry spells in Mato Grosso could still trim output in affected areas.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 118 past bearish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -3.2% to +0.4%), and -1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.