Brazilian soybean farmers have finished planting with good weather giving the crop a fast start, and harvest could begin by mid-January. Meteorologists see Argentina drying out over the next 10 days but no major drought yet, while Brazil's improved weather may help its corn crop.
Favorable Brazil conditions point to a large harvest that weighs on soybean and corn prices, while Argentine dryness remains a watch item that could support prices if it persists.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.