
The EIA's April Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts US regular gasoline retail prices averaging $2.74/gal for the April-September summer driving season, up from last summer. It projects Brent averaging about $63/b in 2018 and 2019 after a March average of $66/b, and US crude production reaching a record 10.7 million b/d in 2018.
Higher forecast crude and gasoline prices raise diesel and transport costs for feed mills and farms. Rising US output and a lower Brent forecast point to ample crude supply, which limits upside in energy costs.
After 56 past neutral report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +2.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 41 past neutral report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -4.0% to +1.9%), and +1.8% over 20.
After 22 past neutral report events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -3.5% to +2.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.