
EIA data shows Midwest (PADD 2) net receipts of gasoline and diesel fell from 1.0 million b/d in 2006 to 0.5 million b/d in 2016. Local refiners now supply a larger share of regional demand as flat demand and rising output reduce inflows.
The region remains a net receiver, especially in summer and during refinery maintenance.
Lower reliance on Gulf Coast diesel shipments changes Midwest distribution patterns and can ease regional diesel supply tightness. The effect on prices is gradual and mainly affects regional spreads.
After 22 past neutral report events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -3.5% to +2.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.