
The EIA said New York Harbor ULSD averaged $4.36 per gallon in October 2022, with the diesel crack spread reaching a record $2.14 per gallon. Drivers cited were low US and global distillate inventories, seasonal heating and agricultural demand, refinery maintenance and European strikes, and higher shipping costs before the EU ban on Russian product imports.
Low inventories combined with a wide crack spread mean refiners earn strong margins, and diesel costs stay high for farm and freight users. The EU Russia ban adds upward pressure on prices through winter.
After 109 past bullish report events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -3.3% to +3.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 56 past neutral report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +2.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.