
MIDF Research reports that USDA Prospective Plantings shows US soybean area for 2018 falling 1% to 89.0 million acres, below the lowest estimate in a Bloomberg survey. The analysts also note US soybean stocks of 2.11 billion bushels on March 1, up 21% year on year, and expect Indonesian replanting to limit palm supply growth.
Lower US soybean acreage tightens the soyoil outlook, which supports palm oil demand as a substitute. The large March stocks partly offset that support on the soy side.
After 296 past bullish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 149 past bullish report events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.