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A USDA Climate Hubs article explains that numerical weather forecasts have improved by about a day per decade, so a seven-day forecast today is about as accurate as a one-day forecast in the 1950s. It highlights NOAA Climate Prediction Center work on forecasting El Niño and La Niña beyond seven days.
Better long-range forecasts help grain and feed buyers plan purchases, but the article does not itself describe a supply shock or price move.
climatehubs.usda.govMay 5, 2018After 2,467 past weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 1,964 past weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,773 past weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 361 past weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
