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Gleadell's David Sheppard says the US-China trade dispute has kept grain markets nervous, with the downturn spilling into wheat even as dryness in eastern EU and downgraded Russian and Ukrainian crop estimates support values. Analysts put Russia's crop at 67-73 million tonnes and expect EU wheat exports of 21-21.5 million tonnes, below the USDA's 24 million.
Lower crop estimates from the Black Sea and EU could tighten world wheat supplies and limit price declines, though trade-war anxiety keeps prices volatile for feed buyers.
farming.co.ukJun 22, 2018After 206 past neutral trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
