
India's monsoon rainfall is 9 percent below normal, with key grain-producing states nearly a quarter short, raising concern over summer-sown crops such as rice, cotton, corn and soybean. Reuters notes the deficit could lift food prices and inflation.
A weaker Indian kharif crop could reduce domestic supply of rice and corn and push India toward more imports, supporting world prices for those grains and soybeans.
After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
India's 9% monsoon deficit, with key grain states about a quarter short, raised supply worries for rice and other crops, which supports a price rally in the days before Oct 3.