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CME analysis argues the Brazilian real may strengthen against the dollar in coming months following Brazil's election, while the Chinese yuan could weaken as the US-China trade war escalates. It notes that Brazil benefits as China redirects soybean and other purchases away from the US.
The piece also flags a possible 2019 US currency manipulator designation for China.
Китайские purchases shifting to Brazil support Brazilian soybean export demand and prices, while a weaker yuan can make Chinese buyers less willing to pay dollar-based prices for US feed ingredients.
cmegroup.comOct 29, 2018After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 52 past trade events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.8%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 40 past bullish trade events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (75% higher; middle half +0.0% to +1.4%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
