
Chinese tariffs of 25% on US soybeans have halted trade, pushing cash soybean prices below $7 per bushel in the Northern Plains. Elevators are raising storage rates or refusing bids, and farmers are selling corn at harvest to free storage.
Halted Chinese demand for US soybeans pressures soybean prices and shifts grain flows toward corn, increasing corn selling pressure at harvest.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.