Farmers Worry About Trade Retaliation in Soybeans, RFS Tradeoffs for Corn

After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Sep 19, 2018Soybean Farmers Worry About Tariffs' Impact : NPR+3.9%
• Oct 12, 2018Trade War Drives Farmers to Corn as China Shuns US Soybeans - TT+0.6%
• Mar 2, 2019As trade war wears on, U.S. soybean farmers start to worry that China's demand won't return-1.7%
• Nov 12, 2018U.S. soybean farmers hang on for dear life in Trump's China trade war+1.9%
• Oct 1, 2018Farmers Rely on Corn for Cash Flow as Soybeans Stuff Storage Space+2.8%

After 480 past neutral trade events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• May 23, 2018U.S.-China trade row sows confusion in farmer planting plans-0.5%
• Feb 15, 2023US Still Not Happy About GM Corn Trade Conditions-0.3%
• Mar 26, 2018Corn and Beans Lower On China Trade Talk.+3.8%
• Aug 18, 2022Farmers’ voices continue to reiterate ag trade issues+0.4%
• Oct 1, 2020International grain trade - Ontario Grain Farmer-0.3%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.