
China has reportedly frozen purchase orders for U.S. soybeans and corn since mid-January 2025, according to Nikkei. Chinese buyers have instead increased purchases of Brazilian farm products to secure supplies.
Halted Chinese demand removes a major outlet for U.S. soybeans and corn, pressuring U.S. futures and basis while supporting Brazilian soybean premiums.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.