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Reuters reports that the last U.S. soybean cargo is heading to China ahead of a 25% extra import duty on more than 500 U.S. goods, including soybeans, that takes effect July 6. Beijing's move responds to Washington's plan to tariff $50 billion of Chinese goods.
Buyers are rushing to ship before the duty applies, so U.S. soybean export demand to China is likely to fall sharply after the deadline, pressuring soybean and meal prices.
reuters.comHallie GuJun 29, 2018After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The last US soybean cargo heading to China before the July 6 duty meant the trade-flow shock was fully priced, so short-covering and position squaring could drive a sharp bounce.
