
Northern Plains farmers face cash soybean bids below $9 per bushel, with North Dakota basis reportedly as weak as -$1.65. China has not bought any new-crop U.S. soybeans, reportedly on government instructions to importers.
The American Soybean Association has warned the President of long-term damage to farmers.
Without Chinese purchases, U.S. soybean export demand is limited and basis weakens, especially in interior regions far from export ports. Lower U.S. prices may also reduce planting and marketing competitiveness versus Brazil.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.