International DAP prices were broadly stable last week, with Tampa at $435-437/t and China FOB at $410-415/t. Weak Indian demand reflects a strong US dollar and rupee depreciation, and Sabic sold 35,000t to India at $420/t FOB.
Stable but soft phosphate prices and weak Indian import demand keep phosphate input costs contained for livestock and grain producers, with Q4 Indian and OCP contract prices a key watch point.
After 45 past macro events, DAP moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.1%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.