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Black Sea grain markets were little changed early Monday after Ukrainian and Russian navies clashed in the Azov Sea and the Kerch Strait was blocked. Several Ukrainian sailors were hurt and three naval vessels were seized.
Traders were waiting to see how the situation developed, and Chicago wheat contracts were slightly higher on thin volume.
Cash grain buyers and sellers held off, so the immediate supply effect is small. Freight to the Azov Sea is the most exposed part of the trade, since owners are reluctant to sail when the strait may close.
commodityconversations.comAgriCensusNov 27, 2018Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 38 past neutral geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
