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Urea and ammonium phosphate prices in South Africa fell week on week to May 26, with urea down 2.4% and MAP down 1.6%. Urea offers from Russia and Iran are pressuring prices while buying interest stays quiet.
The US Tampa ammonia contract dropped almost 40%.
Cheaper nitrogen and phosphate inputs lower farm input costs and reduce pressure on feed grain production costs. Competitive Russian and Iranian urea offers and a seasonal demand lull point to further softness in the near term.
farmingportal.co.zaMay 27, 2022After 81 past bearish trade events, Urea moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (28% higher; middle half -7.2% to +0.4%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 40 past bearish trade events, DAP moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.7% to +0.5%), and -2.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Russian and Iranian urea offers weighing on prices amid quiet buying, plus a roughly 40% drop in the Tampa ammonia contract and a stronger Rand, point to supply-side pressure and weaker input costs.
Falling phosphate (MAP/ammonium phosphate) prices in South Africa, a weaker Tampa ammonia contract (a key DAP input cost) and quiet buying point to softer fertilizer sentiment and lower input costs, consistent with a DAP drop, though the regional scope and modest MAP decline (-1.6%) are small relative to an 8% move.
Urea offers from Russia and Iran pressured prices amid quiet buying, and the Tampa ammonia contract plunged about 40%, lowering input costs.
Falling ammonium phosphate (MAP) prices in South Africa, a sharp drop in Tampa ammonia (a key DAP input cost) and Russian supply pressure point to weaker phosphate pricing, though the South African evidence is regional.
Cheaper urea offers from Russia and Iran, quiet buying interest and a sharp fall in the Tampa ammonia contract show supply pressure and weaker input costs, though the South African move was small (2.4%).
Ammonium phosphate (MAP) prices fell week on week in South Africa and ammonia contracts dropped sharply, reflecting softer phosphate and input-cost sentiment.
