Weekly South African retail fertiliser prices fell between 14 and 21 November, with urea granular down 1.1%, MAP down 0.8% and KCl down 0.7%. India bought over 1 million tonnes of urea at about $362/t CFR, but Middle East FOB prices slipped toward $340/t and Brazil's price is sliding as heavy volumes arrive.
Heavy Brazilian commitments and aggressive Middle Eastern and Iranian offers keep global urea export prices under downward pressure despite India's purchase, which lowers input costs for feed producers.
After 81 past bearish trade events, Urea moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (28% higher; middle half -7.2% to +0.4%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.