
Tunisia has resumed phosphate exports for the first time in 11 years, targeting 300,000 tonnes this year and 600,000 tonnes next year. Buyers include France, Pakistan, Brazil, Indonesia and Turkey, and Tunisian phosphate output doubled in the first quarter of 2022.
Returning Tunisian supply adds to global phosphate availability, a modest bearish factor for fertiliser prices, though volumes are small relative to world trade.
After 40 past bearish trade events, DAP moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.7% to +0.5%), and -2.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.